Buried in a rented suit

1 Mar 2008, 08:07 AM

No one writes an annual letter like Warren:*
A story I told you some years back illustrates our problem in accurately estimating our loss liability: A fellow was on an important business trip in Europe when his sister called to tell him that their dad had died. Her brother explained that he couldn.t get back but said to spare nothing on the funeral, whose cost he would cover. When he returned, his sister told him that the service had been beautiful and presented him with bills totaling $8,000. He paid up but a month later received a bill from the mortuary for $10. He paid that, too . and still another $10 charge he received a month later. When a third $10 invoice was sent to him the following month, the perplexed man called his sister to ask what was going on. "Oh," she replied, "I forgot to tell you. We buried Dad in a rented suit."

*: Bill said it was OK if I refered to him on a first name basis.
ht: Tanta

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Analysts -> Volatility

20 Feb 2008, 00:21 AM


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Money:Tech and the myth of Open

7 Feb 2008, 11:59 AM

I can't sleep, and I feel the need to rant, so please excuse the indulgence... Comments represent the will of my loud cats keeping awake more than those of my firm; caveat emptor, etc.

Each quarter, companies around America file their regulatory statements with the SEC. The SEC wants to ensure that the investing public, both institutional and mom and pops, have access the fundamental information that is relevant to understanding the essentials of corporate performance. This information is published in a very loosely structured format. It is an absolute nightmare to parse this information into a database free of errors. Plenty of services will sell you parsed SEC data in cleaner formats. At our firm, we get access to 10K and Q information via at least ten different channels. In some cases, the same parent company provides the same data via 4 subsidiary channels, each of which are totally un-interoperable with each other.

Take the simple problem of tickers. Anyone who has dealt with equities trading technology knows about this nightmare. The problem is that there, despite the existence of a few quasi-standards, are no true standards that specify how to deal with the concept of 'a single company' with 'a single equity issue' trading on 'a single exchange'. Each of our providers of SEC data has come up with their own unique, and incompatible, way of solving this problem. CRSP has a solution. Reuters/Bridge has another. Reuters Knowledge Direct has yet another. Bloomberg has one. Yahoo Finance and Google each have their own. CapitalIQ has another. Our prime broker has one and our IT team has come up with their own too. And our traders often just make up new symbols when it all gets too much. And the SEC has their own too. In addition, there are various (flawed) standards, CUSIP, ISIN, SEDOL...

This means that each trading firm, somewhere in their backend systems, a big cross-referencing table. Ok. Not a pain to deal with. The cross-reference table that I use works for 99% of the companies we follow, and that's close enough. But the only reason why this simple problem hasn't been solved is that none of the institutions selling their data have any incentive for interoperability. Despite what we heard today around the halls at Money:Tech. If we can't get to a point whereby trivial company identifiers interoperate, there is little hope for grander 'mashups.'

On a panel today, a company made the case that they embraced openness, evidenced by the fact that they freely publish a small subset of their data on Yahoo Finance. Great. So what if a quant savvy small investor wants to put together a database, albeit only containing the 10 line items that this company choses to share online for 'free'? Well, they would have to write a bot to scrape this information to compile the data. As someone who has done this type of stuff, I can tell you that Yahoo is not a fan of this type of behavior. Likewise for Google. If you write a simple bot to scrape this stuff, you will find yourself blacklisted from the service pretty damn quick. In the end, the small investor will end up spending more time trying to hide their botting activity (which violates Yahoo's terms of service) than actually collecting and working with the data.

Even worse is that if our savvy investor spent the time to write software that could competently parse the raw files as published on SEC's EDGAR, they will find that even the SEC, whose purpose of late is solely ensuring that price sensitive information is shared freely to all, takes the same attitude as Yahoo and Google and will shut down any bot that tries to grab data from their site automatically. So even with the introduction of XBRL, which should mitigate many problems with the current EDGAR file format, it wouldn't surprise me if the small investor is no better off in the end.

For all the promise of openness and the virtues of information sharing, primary investment research finds itself operating with a business model more akin to BMG and EMI than represented at today's conference. Through the heavy-handed use of legal, and ultimately anti-technical, constraints, the primary research providers as inflicting their own DRM on information that wants to be free. And whereas commercial music is sponsored through merchandising and tours, there is no clear adjunct market for raw numbers. In a way that is more pressing than for the music industry, these 'research' providers need to wake up and find a better model lest risk irrelevance.


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Why can't I get an RSS feed of my Amazon purchases?

5 Feb 2008, 15:22 PM

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Dolphin Hotel

27 Jan 2008, 05:19 AM

Here. Have some free music*. Thanks.


Craque:"Steve Reich meets Thomas Brinkmann in an alley with John Adams"
Twerk:"Farben meets Zamfir meets Kenny G"

*NB: Not mastered by Audible Oddities. Milage may vary.

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/2008/01/26/12/39/

26 Jan 2008, 23:00 PM


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More random blogging

26 Jan 2008, 03:00 AM

Care for the Fed funds rate probability curve?

For the most part about enabling rapid growth.. The nerd has the first to do it without lining someone else's pocket pc or some other controller and the voice recognition software jobs, great people who have been a feature of the financial landscape for a few weeks ago, and the first, as liquidity pours into a lot of time at the Hudson hotel, Maritime, and that the balance between opportunity and risk of the world's largest banks to lend to be the first institutional money. The same holds for auto companies in the subprime mortgage lead.

Uncategorized the Maestro joins Paulson says that the mathematical object which is a very attractive price of the market for the livestock industries of Africa and central Asia affect future, and the Fed funds rate of the kind published by the Norges Bank or the Riksbank, does not suggest anything of the same price on the risk management system at the same time that the same s who is the most of the market for the same reasons to the same as a few years from now, and the first, the same time that the most of an consumer brings us to the pros and cons of the best, although history has been a step back from this is a classic libertarian ideas in the economy, people become the past returns and public information( and the efficiency and Effectiveness of the same nominal maturity. An email and the same holds great people who are in the most conversions. You can use this tool to be able to be a x--- and the pay for the most part of the planet. With the exception is the same time, the first, as liquidity pours into opportunities. The same is true of personal of the same nominal maturity. An American option you can be a lot of the same nominal maturity. An American option will be worth $40. Why? one reason is that it obviously tipsy on the same thing that happens with their business model and there are still uncertainties about the same ratio for both categories.

The challenge for the same thing...

Uncategorized more than a few supplying leads as the refinance boom started to the economy in the same vein, and the level of inherent interest rates and the market for cancer drugs would be a few short days, the same people who are the most interesting platforms on the Fed eases and eases alot if the wheels are a lot of a few weeks ago, the Mar is the same as a few other than the market, but i have a few weeks ago i was not misquoted. But i's. I have been a few days, i have a few posts in a nutshell: online education lead generation space by the market has to the first, as the first, and sorry it's global Economonitor and the world of the market.


I'll soon be out of a job!


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Leeson Mk. II

24 Jan 2008, 14:58 PM

Supposedly the _real_ reason behind the recent market volatility is some French schlub.

From the Times Colonist[1]
PARIS (Reuters) - A "massive fraud" by a junior rogue trader has punched a $7 billion hole in the finances of French bank Societe Generale , leaving its credibility in tatters and forcing it to get emergency cash. France's central bank and government scrambled to shore up confidence in the banking system after Societe Generale, France's second-biggest bank, said on Thursday it had been the victim of massive and "exceptional" fraud resulting in losses of 4.9 billion euros.
Supposedly this guy was earning less that $145k, working in risk management, taking offsetting positions to hedge against index exposure. SG was quoted as saying that it doesn't appear that he took on the rouge trades for personal gain. Go figure.

Update:
Let me pip the wiley New Zealander and point out that
Risk Magazine named the bank "Equity Derivatives House of the Year", while The Banker magazine named it as "Financial Institutions Group Asset-Liability Management House of the Year" in October.

[1] I know its from Reuters, but I just like the name 'Colonist'.
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Fear Of Peanut Butter Sticking To The Roof Of THe Mouth Phobia?

24 Jan 2008, 09:00 AM

One of the great things about the internet, and all that Google brings to it, is the ongoing battle between AdSense arbitrageurs and the SEO cops at Google. The arbs make pages that are designed to get past the algorithms used to detect arbitrage activity. The search engines argue that these landing pages provide no valuable content and shouldn't be placed highly in search engine result pages. I disagree. There is nothing more fun than watching the evolution as each side plays a double sided Turing test. It's algo battle - can Google's algorithm detect the difference between real articles and those written by arb algorithms? If the video tape revolution was funded by porn, then I predict that AI will come not from MIT, but from people eking out marginal returns from narrowing arb spreads. Or something like that.

What is Fear Of Peanut Butter Sticking To The Roof Of The Mouth Phobia?

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I find this hard to believe:

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Bernanke B (1990) On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads. New

24 Jan 2008, 01:00 AM


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